Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome

Aim Recent studies in southern Africa identified past biome stability as an important predictor of biodiversity. We aimed to assess the extent which predicts present global biodiversity patterns, and projected climatic changes may lead eventual areas with constant biome. Location Global. Taxon Spermatophyta; terrestrial vertebrates. Methods Biome constancy was assessed mapped using results from 89 dynamic vegetation model simulations, driven by outputs palaeoclimate experiments spanning 140 ka. tested hypothesis that vertebrate diversity is predicted constancy. also simulated potential future vegetation, hence quantified change Results Approximately 11% ice-free land had a since Apart Desert, many support high species diversity. All groups show strong positive relationship between greater diversity, but no less diverse areas. Climatic 2100 commits 46%–66% land, 34%–52% (excluding Desert) change. Main conclusions Past strongly higher Future will biome, profound implications for conservation. Some result substantial reductions biospheric carbon sequestration other ecosystem services.